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Wednesday, August 12, 2009The Impact of "E-books" on "P-books" (Printed books)
Presently (August 2009) debate rages about the net impact of e-books upon the book printing industry. Unlike music downloads to iPod's and MP3 players, books are generally not "replayed" (re-read) many times, and most prefer to pass along their books (something impossible with e-books because downloaded books are never "owned," only "rented" with a restricted license).
While "one-feature" e-readers are less likely to become as ubiquitous as iPod's and iPhones, and as Amazon's Kindle and the Sony E-reader face increased competition (and rumors of a new, full color, multi-purpose tablet from Apple run rampant), I expect e-readers will become more popular as their cost and utility improve. But that doesn't infer that printed books are "over" (in the words of those zealousy promoting the latest e-reader-gizmo's).
Certainly publishers appear to have the most to lose if and when "e-reader" companies come to monopolize content distribution. In effect, publisher's pricing and profits could become dictated by dominant e-reader vendors. While there's no clear evidence that the "middle-man" role of publishers is going to be virtually eliminated, already one sees "downward price pressure" upon them. Add to this the ability of e-content to severely reduce or eliminate the outdated, expensive and inefficient business model of allowing "returns" (which now dominates traditional publishing), and it becomes apparent major publishers are likely to be printing fewer books overall in the years ahead.
On the other hand, the vast majority of new titles now being introduced (in printed and e-versions) are "self-published" works. While none so far have approached the mass sales of books like the Harry Potter series, the number of new self-published titles coming out each year is staggering...and steadily increasing. For book printers, this seems to indicate "short run book printing" has a much brighter near-term future than "mega-run" traditional book printing, and while I expect there will always be a need for that printing service, it's logical to presume "consolidation" will eventually shrink the number of mega-run book printers. Those who will survive are already mastering the art of digital printing "short run" books to meet both demands. Ironically, this trend has actually brought more competition into the book printing business, as skilled digital printers expand their expertise in bindery, packaging and distribution.
At some point, the "Green Movement" may eventually 'awake' to what's happening in the book industry. As e-readers proliferate, their multitude of negative impacts upon the environment are likely to be addressed, and their endless demand for energy will have to be considered. Unlike printed books which use recycled content papers and reduce landfill impact, it's conceivable "e-books" could eventually be targeted as "politically and environmentally incorrect." I'm not holding my breath for that awakening however, as "green activists" appear to have, so far, totally ignored the net impact of disposable technology products and their seller's claims.
Another potential "force to be reckoned with" at some point could be those concerned about the "constitutional rights" aspects of e-reader monopolization. As irony would have it, Amazon recently "unilaterally," and rightly, removed e-versions of Orwell's "1984" from its customer's Kindles to resolve a copyright and distribution dispute. But the dark side of that experience is now clear: when e-content is monopolized, those who "run the show" completely control content. Just because one has "purchased the right to read a book" is no guarantee the transaction cannot be reversed anytime the seller chooses. From there, it's a very short step to arguments about "freedom of the press," censorship and mis-use of authority to "shape" or "spin" information and content. And that realization could eventually lead to a renewed appreciation for printed books (whose content cannot later be controlled by those who've already sold them).
In the larger context, just as radio and television did not kill the "motion picture industry," now it's possible to recognize the internet and new devices are not "killing" other mediums, including printed books, outright. They are simply new, competing forms of distribution which afford authors and "content creators" a new medium. I suspect the argument that "the fundamental battle is between e-books and p-books" simply mis-characterizes the current situation. What I see is actually "a battle bewteen e-books and the inefficient, traditional printed book business model." That leaves plenty of room for digitally printed "books on demand" (be they short run esoteric self-published works, backlist books from major publishers or other booming channels like business books and micro-niche special interest publications).
In my view e-books won't "kill" printed books for many reasons, but they will change demand and how it's met. Fundamentally, just as motion pictures not only survived but thrived, book printers will do fine as long as they adapt to the new landscape. Just as the "Big Three" networks no longer dominate and dictate television viewing, the "medium for reading" won't eliminate demand for quality content but will, in fact, spur demand for more quality content and enable more to appreciate the advantages each medium offers.
Posted By: Hugh Griffin @ 11:47:07 AM